News & Press
Article from Washington PostFor Immediate Release: Contact: Tim Baker Friday, June 12, 2009 (770) 519-6375 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Recruiting moves slower on the House side than in the Senate but both sides have successes to tout -- Democrats have found quality candidates in California's 45th district and in Delaware's at-large seat while Republicans have scored A-listers in New Hampshire's 1st district and Alabama's 2nd district. Friday House Line: Baby Steps By: Chris Cillizza The Washington Post June 12, 2009 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the-line/friday-house-line-3.html The battle for the House remains in its infant stages -- like ole Charlie Fix -- but some early trends are starting to take shape. Republicans enjoy a wider field of targets thanks to the 54 seats House Democrats have picked up over the last two elections but the top ten pickup opportunities on this week's Line are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Recruiting moves slower on the House side than in the Senate but both sides have successes to tout -- Democrats have found quality candidates in California's 45th district and in Delaware's at-large seat while Republicans have scored A-listers in New Hampshire's 1st district and Alabama's 2nd district. As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch party control. Your kudos and critiques are welcome in the comments section below. (A point of personal privilege: Let's try to keep the comments section as an open dialogue on the topic at hand rather than a name-calling sessions between a few commenters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.) To the Line! Added from last Line: New York's 23rd Dropped from last Line: California's 45th, Ohio's 1st Last GOP-held seat to be cut: Michigan's 11th Last Democratic-held seat to be cut: Virginia's 5th 10. California's 44th district (Republican-controlled): Rep. Ken Calvert barely escaped an unknown and underfunded challenge from Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008. Hedrick immediately announced he was running again and will get lots more attention (read: money) from the national party this time around. Democrats also believe that Calvert is vulnerable to attacks on his ethics as a result of a 2006 Los Angeles Times story regarding earmarks. (Previous ranking: 10) 9. Mississippi's 1st district (Democratic-controlled): On paper, this is a seat that Democrats have no business holding; President Barack Obama won just 38 percent of the vote here in 2008. But, Rep. Travis Childers is a good fit for the district and benefited from facing the same opponent last November that he had defeated in a special election earlier in the year. If Republicans can find a nominee not so closely tied to Memphis -- in other words, not from DeSoto County -- it could severely complicate Childers' winning equation. No one with that profile has emerged just yet. (Previous ranking: 6) 8. Alabama's 2nd district (D): Republicans believe they have landed a gem in Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby who announced late last month that she would challenge Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in 2010. Bright sits in one of the most Republican districts currently held by a Democrat but his allies insist his time as the mayor of Montgomery (a nonpartisan office) provides him with credibility among the district's voters that transcends party. We shall see. (Previous ranking: 5) 7. Pennsylvania's 6th district (R): The demographics of this suburban Philadelphia district are trending away from the Republican party and Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) knows it. After narrowly hanging on against a third tier (at best) opponent in 2008, Gerlach is exploring runs for governor or Senate in 2010 -- an acknowledgment that running for re-election in this seat is a treacherous proposal. Doug Pike, a former member of the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board, is personally wealthy and already in the race against Gerlach. With or without the incumbent, this is a tough hold for the GOP. (Previous ranking: 9) 6. New York's 23rd district (R): McHugh's departure creates a major headache for national Republicans who already fought for and lost one Upstate New York district in a special election this year. The difference in this race? A Democratic victory would be a takeover as opposed to a hold like New York's 20th district. With a coup in the state Senate handing control to Republicans, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine is now considered Democrats' leading candidate and, if he ran, would be considered the favorite. State Rep. Will Barclay, who lost a 2008 state Senate special election to Aubertine, could well be the Republican pick. This district has been represented by a Republican for eons but Obama's 52 percent showing in 2008 is evidence that the special election is a toss up. (Previous ranking: N/A) 5. Maryland's 1st district (D): Rep. Frank Kratovil's (D) victory in this strongly Republican eastern shore district was the result of a Republican party badly divided over ideological lines. With conservative state Sen. Andrew Harris the likely Republican nominee again in 2010, Democrats are optimistic that Kratovil can peel off enough moderate GOPers to win despite the demographic underpinnings of the seat. (Previous ranking: 3) 4. New Hampshire's 1st district (D): The combination of one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country -- Rep. Carol Shea Porter -- and an early recruiting success for Republicans in the form of Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta make this seat a major opportunity for the GOP. Of the two New Hampshire House seats, this is the more competitive and Republicans are already gearing up to make a major push. (Previous ranking: 4) 3. Delaware's At-Large (R): Rep. Mike Castle's (R) decision earlier this week not to seek the top Republican slot on the Education and Labor Committee seems the surest evidence yet that he will either run for the state's vacant Senate seat in 2010 or retire from the House. With the seat almost certainly open and former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) already in the race, this is a seat that is looking better and better for Democrats. (Previous ranking: 7) 2. Idaho's 1st district (D): That Rep. Walt Minnick (D) even got elected to this strongly Republican seat is a testament to his political skills -- and the zaniness of former Rep. Bill Sali (R). Holding the district is another matter altogether given that Democratic turnout -- such as it is in that district -- will be down and Minnick won't have Sali to run against. (Previous ranking: 2) 1. Louisiana's 2nd district (R): Rep. Joseph Cao (R) was, without question, the biggest surprise of the 2008 cycle and, like other out-of-nowhere members who win seats in stunning upsets (See Flanagan, Mike), he is headed to almost certain defeat in 2010. Knowing this, Democrats are falling all over themselves to be their party's nominee with an extremely competitive primary likely. Sidenote: former Rep. Bill Jefferson's (D) trial on charges of bribery has begun in Virginia. (Previous ranking: 1) ### Martha Roby for Congress P.O. Box 195 • Montgomery, AL • 36101 www.martharoby.com Paid for by Martha Roby for Congress |
